Market Resolution

Every prediction market eventually resolves with a definitive outcome. Here's what happens when markets close.

The Resolution Process

1. Trading Closes

When a market reaches its end time:

• No new trades can be placed

• Existing positions are locked

• The market enters "Pending Resolution" status

2. Outcome Determined

The market creator or Opinio team determines the result based on:

• Official sources (news, statistics, official announcements)

• Pre-defined resolution criteria

• Verifiable, objective evidence

3. Resolution Announced

Once verified:

• The winning side is declared (YES or NO)

• All positions are settled

• Winnings are distributed

4. Payouts Processed

Winners receive their payouts:

• Each winning vote = $1

• Payments credited to your balance immediately

• Ready to withdraw or reinvest

How Winning Works

If You Picked the Winning Side

Your payout is simple:

Payout = Number of Votes × $1

Example:

• You bought 150 YES votes for $90

• Market resolves YES

• You receive $150

• Profit: $60 (66.7% return)

If You Picked the Losing Side

Unfortunately:

• Your position is worth $0

• You lose your entire stake

• No partial payouts for losing positions

This is why price reflects probability - you're paid for taking risk.

Resolution Criteria

Markets clearly state their resolution criteria upfront. Common types:

Date-Based

"Will X happen by [date]?"

• Resolves YES if event occurs before deadline

• Resolves NO if deadline passes without event

Event-Based

"Will X win [competition]?"

• Resolves when the event concludes

• Based on official results

Numeric

"Will X exceed [number]?"

• Based on official measurements

• Time and source specified

Disputed Resolutions

What If You Disagree?

Opinio strives for fair, objective resolutions. If you believe a resolution is incorrect:

1. Review the stated resolution criteria

2. Check the sources used for resolution

3. Contact support with specific evidence

Resolution Finality

Once resolved:

• Outcomes are generally final

• Changes only made for clear errors

• Disputed resolutions are rare with clear criteria

After Resolution

Viewing Results

Check your past positions in the Portfolio:

• See which markets you won/lost

• Review your P&L history

• Learn from your predictions

Reinvesting Winnings

Your winnings are automatically added to your balance. You can:

• Trade on new markets

• Withdraw to your wallet

• Let it grow through more trading

Timeline Expectations

Phase	Typical Duration
Trading Period	Days to months (varies by market)
Resolution Pending	Usually < 24 hours after end time
Payout Processing	Instant once resolved

Tips for Resolved Markets

Track Your Performance

• Keep notes on your predictions

• Review what you got right and wrong

• Improve your prediction process

Don't Chase Losses

After a loss:

• Take time before trading again

• Don't revenge trade

• Stick to your strategy

Celebrate Wins (Reasonably)

A winning trade validates your analysis, but:

• One win doesn't make you an expert

• Stay humble and keep learning

• Luck plays a role too

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Next: Creating Markets →